Energy Commodities Analysis

MS

Morgan Stanley Commodities

Oil is rallying on risk, not tightness: physical signals eased as options skew surged. We map four Iran scenarios—from premium unwind to transit impairment—and keep our base case for Brent drifting toward ~$60 as risk premia fade and balances soften.

Analysis on:

• Four Market Scenarios

• Summary balances and price forecasts

• Prices

• Differentials

• Crude Quality

• Refining Margins

• Product Crack Spreads

• Refinery Outages

• Inventories

• Seaborne Exports

• US Production

• Positioning